eARDS: A multi-center validation of an interpretable machine learning algorithm of early onset Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) among critically ill adults with COVID-19.

We present an interpretable machine learning algorithm called 'eARDS' for predicting ARDS in an ICU population comprising COVID-19 patients, up to 12-hours before satisfying the Berlin clinical criteria. The analysis was conducted on data collected from the Intensive care units (ICU) at Emory Healthcare, Atlanta, GA and University of Tennessee Health Science Center, Memphis, TN and the Cerner® Health Facts Deidentified Database, a multi-site COVID-19 EMR database. The participants in the analysis consisted of adults over 18 years of age. Clinical data from 35,804 patients who developed ARDS and controls were used to generate predictive models that identify risk for ARDS onset up to 12-hours before satisfying the Berlin criteria. We identified salient features from the electronic medical record that predicted respiratory failure among this population. The machine learning algorithm which provided the best performance exhibited AUROC of 0.89 (95% CI = 0.88-0.90), sensitivity of 0.77 (95% CI = 0.75-0.78), specificity 0.85 (95% CI = 085-0.86). Validation performance across two separate health systems (comprising 899 COVID-19 patients) exhibited AUROC of 0.82 (0.81-0.83) and 0.89 (0.87, 0.90). Important features for prediction of ARDS included minimum oxygen saturation (SpO2), standard deviation of the systolic blood pressure (SBP), O2 flow, and maximum respiratory rate over an observational window of 16-hours. Analyzing the performance of the model across various cohorts indicates that the model performed best among a younger age group (18-40) (AUROC = 0.93 [0.92-0.94]), compared to an older age group (80+) (AUROC = 0.81 [0.81-0.82]). The model performance was comparable on both male and female groups, but performed significantly better on the severe ARDS group compared to the mild and moderate groups. The eARDS system demonstrated robust performance for predicting COVID19 patients who developed ARDS at least 12-hours before the Berlin clinical criteria, across two independent health systems.

Outcomes of critically ill solid organ transplant patients with COVID-19 in the United States.

National data on patient characteristics, treatment, and outcomes of critically ill coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) solid organ transplant (SOT) patients are limited. We analyzed data from a multicenter cohort study of adults with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 admitted to intensive care units (ICUs) at 68 hospitals across the United States from March 4 to May 8, 2020. From 4153 patients, we created a propensity score matched cohort of 386 patients, including 98 SOT patients and 288 non-SOT patients. We used a binomial generalized linear model (log-binomial model) to examine the association of SOT status with death and other clinical outcomes. Among the 386 patients, the median age was 60 years, 72% were male, and 41% were black. Death within 28 days of ICU admission was similar in SOT and non-SOT patients (40% and 43%, respectively; relative risk [RR] 0.92; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.70-1.22). Other outcomes and requirement for organ support including receipt of mechanical ventilation, development of acute respiratory distress syndrome, and receipt of vasopressors were also similar between groups. There was a trend toward higher risk of acute kidney injury requiring renal replacement therapy in SOT vs. non-SOT patients (37% vs. 27%; RR [95% CI]: 1.34 [0.97-1.85]). Death and organ support requirement were similar between SOT and non-SOT critically ill patients with COVID-19.